A lot of reports out today collectively gave me a very bad feeling about the state of our current housing recovery.
First, Amherst Securities Group took a look at Pay Option ARMs. These are the adjustable rate loans so popular in 2006 that allowed you to choose your monthly mortgage payment, while tacking what you don’t spend on to the principal of your loan. Only 9 percent of these loans had full documentation from the borrower and 76 percent were originated in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, our four disaster states for housing. It should therefore come as no shock that they are suddenly approaching subprime in their delinquency status. So while we all sit around saying that the subprime loans have already worked their way through the system, they’re fast being replaced by POA’s. “For 2006 securitized issuance, 61% of subprime loans have defaulted, as have 49% of the option ARMs,” according to the Amherst report.